Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Senza Tema, Nov 24, 2004.

  1. #1 Senza Tema, Nov 24, 2004
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 25, 2016

    So does anybody else think civil war in the Ukraine would suck? The Russians want one dude to win cause he backs them, but the opponent is asking for the people of the Ukraine to go on a 'political strike'. I've read a few reports of the main highway leading into the capital being overrun by people camping on it and also all the schools and universities are empty cause they all are backing the opponent. Anybody know more?
  2. Russia would basically restart the Cold War by invading - they're not that stupid I hope...
  3. Wow. That was intelligent.
  4. I only got 1 comment in before people starting saying shit?
  5. what do you think this is, a quality forum?
  6. Sorry, his comment was stupid, but I guess you think that I should have ignored it and gone with a significant response.

    Here it is.

    This can go two ways.

    1. A dialougue will be opened, a consensus will be reached, and one side will cave. -Damn unlikely, especially because one of the oposition ministers has already stated that it won't happen.

    2. Likely we get a Venezuala situation on our hands. Stikes, protests a few skirmishes etc. Some attempts at apeasing the oposition will be made without any formal dialougue, leading to another election. This is unfortunate because it will harm the economy, which is a blow the country can't afford.

    Civil war is unlikely. Russia won't do anything other than talk shit.
  7. Well I'm only an international relations student with a FAR better grasp or what's going on in Ukrain and the history there than you do... what do I know..
  8. And FYI Russia cares INTENSELY about this. 1/2 of Ukraine should be part of Russia as it is. It's very questionable whether Putin could maintain in power if he let Ukraine slip from Russia's grasp (this also goes for Belarus)

    Among other things Putin actually campaigned in Ukraine for the pro-Russian cantidate right untill the end! He also financed his campaign, and has been moving Russian troops into Ukraine for weeks incase things didn't go their way. He then declared the election over in opposition to the rest of the world, and has maintained this stance under intense international pressure (the US called in the Russian ambasador tonight so I heard!)

    For Russia to let Ukraine move out of their camp is unthinkable. If Russian can't hold on to Ukraine (which is more Russian than most of Russia!) it would be the untimate sign of impotence.
  9. Good god! Of course Russia won't invade. If that is all your grasp of the situation led you to conclude you need to consider killing yourself on account of the fact that you will never be able to determine anything aside from the bloody obvious. My 15 year old sister knows that Russia won't invade and she is damn stupid.

    Lets look at the factors:

    Military: Russia's is tied up in internal conflict and has been scaled back to the point that it lacks the means to embark upon a soviet-style invasion.

    International Relations: The fact that a potential conflict would escalte is beside the point. Political and socio-economic factors would pre-emptivly halt any notion of an invasion. Russia can't afford an embargo or any type of economic sanction. Russia's future prosperity depends on pleasent dealings with it neighbours, any action would foul said dealings.

    Russia would further face internal unrest if it acted. Infact action against the Ukrainians would severly anger many of the minorities in Russia, on whome the Kremlin's hold is tenuous.
  10. On the other hand, if Russia does act, they commit political and economic suiciede. This is where your game theory kicks in.
  11. You act like this is the Prague Spring or something!

    Russia won't have to "invade" since near half the population as well as the current power structure is on their side, they only have to show that they're serious and give backing where it's needed. For instance Russia is supposed to have flown in their special forces and dressed them in Ukrainian uniforms, so if it comes down to shooting protesters they're no risk of the Ukrainian forces disobeying orders (the Russian certainly understand how this could happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
  12. Actually I think I outlined why the circumstances are nothing like prague spring. Hence why I said that russia will just talk.
  13. Did you ever think that this is directly related what AutoX is talking about. The reason Russia cares so much about ukrainian elections is because it needs healthy relations with it's neighbors, and having a pro-Russian politician in power is calculated to maintain such relations. For Russia to let Ukrain move out of their camp may be unthinkable, but for Russia to let the USA move out of it's corner is tantamount to the collapse of the Russian state.

    On another note, I count three International Relations majors in this thread, So I would refrain from claiming the last word before the debate has started. Especialy if the last word I was proposing was as shortsighted and retarded as yours is.
  14. And again it makes no difference. If Yanukovych is seen as having hijacked the election, The USA, along with the majority of the first world will weigh in. If Russia is seen as interfearing, the same will happen.
  15. Russia's challenge will obviously be to minimize the damage to themselves. I can't imagine the West imposing serious sanctions, especially when they need what Russia sells (it's noteable also that UKRAINE needs what Russia sells, namely oil). So Putin doesn't get invited to some international confrences, boo hoo, at least he's still in power (if you want to talk about game theory, it's a zero sum game for Putin and the current kabal in Moscow as I see it).

    There also the fact that while this will weaken Russia's hand with the West (who cares?), it strengthens their hand in the CIS where it matters. They can make an example of Ukraine, as well as establish a firm border with the EU.

    And even in the West I'm not so sure a united front will stand up. For all their talk of multi-polarity look for the French to be the first to jump ship.
  16. The way they will limit the damage to themselves is by diplomatic preassure -essentially talking. I really feal like I am repeating myself here.
  17. How can they diplomatically pressure Ukrainians and the world into accepting an obviously fradgulent election? Russia will do what it has to to keep Ukraine inline, but it won't come to anything like invading (the Ukrainians know resistence is futile, and the West sure as hell isn't going to lift a finger)
  18. Now all you need to do is forget that whole bit about Russian spetsnaz insurection of ukrainian security and everything you have said here will amount to "0".

    Russia will do what it can to influence the Ukrainians which following the game-theory speak amounts to cheap talk. W has already promissed sanctions to the Yanukovych, if the election reasults are declared, and would be more than happy to defend it's interests in the ukrain, from Russian interfeirence. The rest of the world is poised to lift a finger, and manouvering to raise a big nasty economic fist.
  19. My prediction: some pretext is found to fire on and disperse protesters (w/ covert Russian soldiers leading the charge and setting the example), marchall law is declared and opposition crushed, the West pisses and moans for a few weeks and blacklists the Unkainian leadership (boo hoo), and Ukraine continues to turn into a sh*thole w/ anyone with a future (read: Yushchenko supporters) continueing to emmigrate. Russia gets what it wants, and will soon come to the aid of the Ukrainian government w/ a sweetheart pipeline deal. West continues to buy and consume oil. All returns to normal...
  20. ...and those would be the same sanctions which ensure a democratic Belarus?
  21. My prediction Tom Clancy doesn't decide on Russian foreign policy with regard to the Ukrain. Russia will do it's best to influence Yushenko into cracking down and consolidating power, Yushenko either doensn't bite, or does and The USA goes ahead with an embargo as promissed (look up the difference between embargo and sanctions).

    If ever there was a conservative Realpolitiker in our day and age Putin is it. He knows how much room he has to move.
  22. Where did the US threaten an embargo? That seems rather extreme! And even if they do enforce braod sanctions (very unlikely IMHO) so long as the government can hold on (I can't imagine a revolution/coup) the US will just be hurting the people of Ukraine...

    And the Russians and Putin have sh*t for brains as far as tact and restraint. See: Chechnia!!! How could any realpolitiker justify that?

    The Russians have a strong sense of their historic national interest, and keeping Ukraine tight is right at the top.
  23. And have you been paying attention to what's happening in the world lately? 9/11? Iraq? WoT? Tom Clancy is the guy to watch <A BORDER="0" HREF=""><IMG BORDER="0" SRC=""></A>
  24. If Russian pressure is only diplomatic, the world won't give a shit as far as Russia is concerned.

    Russia can also appeal directly to the Significant Russian population and give non-direct aid to the cause. Any more direct forms of intervention are dangerous at best and have the potential to seriously FSU... I suppose you can add bribery and influence pedaling to talking, but still...

    Resistance for the Ukrainians isn't futile. As much as game theory is a part of economics, so is beggar thy Neighbour (thy neighbour in this case can be considered to be Russians and their sympathizers in Ukrain and in Russia). In this case it becomes a question of political and economic brinksmanship, leading back to my assertion that we are headed for a Venezuala-esque situation. Again I repeat myself. The US however will come out in support of Viktor Yushchenko.

    You have little grasp of US designs in Eastern Europe. Are you aware of the vast sums of money that the US has spent in re-vitalizing the Ukrainian economic system? How about their influence through organizations such as the EERC? What of their attempts to push the Eastern Block into the EU? The US won't let this go and Russia knows it.
  25. A Venezuela-esq situation where the anti-Western President stays in power and shrugs off whatever diplomatic pressure and sanctions come their way? Isn't that what I'm argueing for?

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